RED SEA REOPENS GRADUALLY, BUT HORMUZ REMAINS CONSTRAINED – IS GLOBAL SHIPPING ENTERING A NEW ROUTING ERA?

🚨 RED SEA REOPENS GRADUALLY, BUT HORMUZ REMAINS CONSTRAINED – IS GLOBAL SHIPPING ENTERING A NEW ROUTING ERA? 🌍🚢

Two major maritime chokepoints in the Middle East are now sending very different signals.

🔹 Red Sea – Suez: Capacity is gradually returning

After nearly three years of major carriers limiting services through the region, part of container capacity has started returning to the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal.

According to Xeneta data cited by Vietnam Logistics Review, average weekly container capacity through Bab el-Mandeb reached around 212,636 TEU in August 2026 – more than double the level a year earlier, but still only around 23% of August 2023 levels.

Returning to Suez can save around two weeks on some Asia–Europe services, while reducing fuel consumption, vessel time and inventory in transit. However, the recovery remains uneven and should not yet be considered a full return to normal.

🔸 Hormuz: Still a major bottleneck

While the Red Sea is gradually reopening, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.

VLR, citing vessel-tracking data, reported that traffic fell to only four commercial vessels per day at one point in mid-September. Xeneta also assessed on September 10 that the strait remained effectively closed for container shipping.

Spot rates from China to Khor Al Fakkan were reported at around USD 10,626/FEU, up 479% from late February. China–Jeddah rates reached approximately USD 10,870/FEU, up 256%.

⚠️ The key point: these two chokepoints affect shipping in different ways.

Red Sea/Suez primarily determines Asia–Europe voyage distance and the amount of vessel capacity tied up when ships divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

Hormuz, meanwhile, has a direct impact on oil, LNG and container networks serving the Persian Gulf. So, a gradual reopening of Suez does not mean Middle East shipping has returned to normal.

📦 WHAT SHOULD SHIPPERS BE WATCHING?

Freight rates alone are no longer enough.

Businesses should also monitor:

➡️ Actual vessel routing
➡️ Service strings and transshipment ports
➡️ Carrier contingency plans
➡️ Realistic transit times and ETA reliability
➡️ War-risk surcharges and other emergency fees
➡️ Alternative ports and routing options

For Asia–Europe and Middle East cargo, the cheapest rate may not necessarily deliver the lowest total logistics cost if unreliable transit times lead to higher inventory, missed production windows or delayed deliveries.

🌍 The biggest logistics lesson from 2026:
One chokepoint can gradually reopen while another becomes even more constrained.

For shippers, the ability to switch routes, ports and contingency plans quickly is becoming an increasingly important part of supply-chain resilience.